Friday, October 24, 2008

Consistent Scoring

What you're looking at is a plot of scoring averages in weeks 1-5 vs scoring averages in weeks 6-10 for AOD teams dating back to the 2004 season. The blue dots are teams that missed the playoffs. The gold dots are teams that made the playoffs. The green dots are teams playing this year. Some observations:
* Scoring gets you into the playoffs, unless you're 2006 White Lightning
* Crosshairs are set to the average - that means the league average is about 133 in the first 5 weeks, and maybe 134 in weeks 6-10.
* It almost appears as if teams that go crazy for 5 weeks ('05 BB, '06 Fed, '07 RD) are better off than teams that are just a little above average over the first 10 weeks ('07 WL, '07 NB, '06 TS)
* Teams can have a crazy start, but can fall off in the middle weeks (see blue dots in the lower right quad)
* Notice that no playoff teams are in the lower left quad
* This year's teams that appear to fit the playoff mold appear to be Brass Balls, Monkey Biters, Na Brown, and maybe Fuzz Busters or Crenshaw Mafia.
* The A-Team, despite a loaded roster, simply has not performed enough at this point to look like a real contender.
Let's finish with Brian's post about White Lightning in 2006:
Lynn's Disposition - by Brian Petersen
"I'm trying to figure out what is going on in Lynn's mind right now through his posts. He's trying to stay composed and laugh about the situation, but underneath he probably wants to cry and curse.
"It's like he crapped his pants at a party and is forcing a smile and even laughingly says, "who farted?" maintaining his composure until he can sneak away into the guest bathroom where he takes off his pants and washes his briefs in the sink."

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Rolling Win %

Setting our regular season winning percentages to a weekly trend over time:

What I've done here is just pick up 10 weeks into your AOD career, and computed your regular season winning percentage. Each week your W/L is added to the computation, which gives you a feel for whether you're improving or declining over time.

Some highlights:
* Briao took over the #1 spot for several weeks in 2006
* Rocketdogs has sat steady at just above .600 for about 7 years
* Fedden is on a 7-year slide, which stalled for a season in '06
* Monkey Biters has quietly built a 6-year upward trend
* Toughskins and A-Team have gotten closer and closer since their largest gap in '03
* Na Brown and Crenshaw got off to really rough starts; they settled into the pack for a while, but Crenshaw has steadily fallen out of the Tar Pit.
* Ditty is the streakiest player of all. He lost 8 in a row to finish the '07 season, started this year with 4 wins in a row, and now has lost three in a row again. He seems to be settling in Crenshaw/Phalcon land.